Fully Vaccinated: 88% of COVID-19 Cases, 68% of Hospitalizations, and 67% of Deaths in Canada

The Public Health Agency of Canada’s own dataset shows that fully vaccinated people are catching COVID-19 at a higher rate than unvaccinated individuals. This begs the question: how can they justify discriminatory proof-of-vaccination policies that were intended to stop the spread of COVID-19, when full vaccination does nothing to stop people from becoming infected?

There are a lot of numbers and data in this article. If you find it overwhelming or hard to follow along with, please feel free to skip to the Summary section for a recap.

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Wondering who I am or what agenda I might have? Check out the About Page to understand why speaking this truth is important to me.

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Cases by vaccination status

Let’s start by looking at the current numbers published by the Public Health Agency of Canada:

The above shows around 53% of cases are in unvaccinated people and 40% are in fully vaccinated people. But something in that screenshot should catch your attention - the fact that the data goes all the way back to December 14th, 2020.

Recall, for a moment, what things were like around that time… Was anyone even vaccinated? According to the Government’s own data, at that time zero percent of the population was vaccinated. We wouldn’t even reach a 50% vaccination rate until July of the following year. How can they classify cases as “unvaccinated” when almost nobody was vaccinated?

To get a better understanding of the current COVID-19 situation in Canada, we should look at more recent data. Below is a screenshot of the same government website from a few weeks earlier. You don’t need to read it in detail, I’ll pull out the relevant information in a moment.

The above screenshot shows that as of December 25th, 2021, cases were broken down by vaccination status as follows:

• 728,415 unvaccinated

• 43,754 received first dose less than 14 days ago

• 54,772 partially vaccinated

• 219,445 fully vaccinated

The updated information from the first screenshot showed us that as of January 15th, 2022 the cases were:

• 771,095 unvaccinated

• 44,494 received first dose less than 14 days ago

• 61,209 partially vaccinated

• 581,635 fully vaccinated

Right away, we can see that fully vaccinated cases climbed significantly faster in those three weeks compared to the other groups. By subtracting the case counts between the two dates, we can calculate how many of the cases are new cases.

Between December 26th, 2021 and January 15th, 2022, the 412,047 cases broken down by vaccination status were:

• 42,680 (10.4%) unvaccinated

• 740 (0.2%) received first dose less than 14 days ago

• 6437 (1.6%) partially vaccinated

• 362,190 (87.9%) fully vaccinated

You read that correctly. Between December 26th, 2021 and January 15th, 2022, 88% of COVID-19 cases in Canada were in fully vaccinated people.

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Hospitalizations and deaths by vaccination status

The following information is derived from the same source as above. Data used in the calculation are included in the sources section.

Hospitalizations between December 25th, 2021 and January 15th, 2022 by vaccination status were:

• 8,625 total

• 2,361 (27.4%) unvaccinated

• 41 (0.5%) received first dose less than 14 days ago

• 315 (3.7%) partially vaccinated

• 5,818 (67.5%) fully vaccinated

Deaths between December 25th, 2021 and January 15th, 2022 by vaccination status were:

• 1,353 total

• 403 (29.8%) unvaccinated

• 9 (0.7%) received first dose less than 14 days ago

• 40 (3.0%) partially vaccinated

• 901 (66.6%) fully vaccinated

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Why did I choose this specific date range?

I’ve been accused of cherry picking dates to fit my narrative. The honest answer is this is just the most recent data available. I could have looked at the last one, two, three, four, or five weeks, and the numbers would have looked very similar. That isn’t just a guess either…

• Between December 5th and 25th, 2021, 85% of cases were fully vaccinated

• Between December 26th and January 1st, 90% of cases were fully vaccinated

• Between January 2nd and 8th, 86% of cases were fully vaccinated

• Between January 9th and 15th, 87% of cases were fully vaccinated

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Incidence rates instead of absolute numbers

A common rebuttal to the argument that “most cases are in fully vaccinated people” is that we ought to expect more cases in fully vaccinated people since there are more fully vaccinated people in the population. As we get closer to 100% vaccination rate, we would expect almost all cases to be in fully vaccinated people. To adjust for the different population levels within the two groups, we can calculate the incidence rates (per 100,000 people) instead of looking at absolute numbers. This gives us a better idea of how many vaccinated people are getting COVID-19 and having severe outcomes compared to unvaccinated people.

On January 8th, 2022, 77.1% of all Canadians were fully vaccinated and 17.1% were unvaccinated (according to the Public Health Agency of Canada’s data, here). That works out to approximately 29,484,406 fully vaccinated people and 6,522,212 unvaccinated people. The following calculations offer an “apples to apples” comparison of the fully vaccinated group versus unvaccinated group.

Cases:

• 31 per 100,000 unvaccinated people people (daily average; 42,680 cases in 6,522,212 over 21 days).

• 59 per 100,000 fully vaccinated people (daily average; 362,190 cases in 29,484,406 over 21 days).

Hospitalizations:

• 1.73 per 100,000 unvaccinated people (daily average; 2,361 hospitalizations in 6,522,212 people over 21 days).

• 0.94 per 100,000 fully vaccinated people (daily average; 5,818 hospitalizations in 29,484,406 people over 21 days).

Deaths:

• 0.29 per 100,000 unvaccinated people (daily average; 403 deaths in 6,522,212 people over 21 days).

• 0.15 per 100,000 fully vaccinated people (daily average; 901 deaths in 29,484,406 people over 21 days).

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Summary

Fully vaccinated people are catching COVID-19 at almost double the rate of unvaccinated people in Canada. Conversely, unvaccinated people are experiencing severe outcomes nearly twice as often as fully vaccinated people. Two doses of vaccine appear to be doing nothing in terms of stopping the spread of COVID-19, although they do seem to be providing some level of protection against severe outcomes.

Cases:

• 10% unvaccinated; daily average of 31 per 100,000 people

• 88% fully vaccinated; daily average of 59 per 100,000 people

Hospitalizations:

• 27% unvaccinated; daily average of 1.73 per 100,000 people

• 68% fully vaccinated; daily average of 0.94 per 100,000 people

Deaths:

• 30% unvaccinated; daily average of 0.29 per 100,000 people

• 67% fully vaccinated; daily average of 0.15 per 100,000 people

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Sources

Public Health Agency of Canada, “COVID-19 daily epidemiology update”

Public Health Agency of Canada, “COVID-19 vaccination coverage”

Data used in calculations:

• Hospitalizations as of December 25th, 2021:

  • 52,137 total

  • 41,089 unvaccinated

  • 3,077 received first dose less than 14 days ago

  • 3,402 partially vaccinated

  • 4569 fully vaccinated

• Hospitalizations as of January 15th, 2022:

  • 60,762 total

  • 43,540 unvaccinated

  • 3,118 received first dose less than 14 days ago

  • 3,717 partially vaccinated

  • 10,387 fully vaccinated

• Deaths as of December 25th, 2021:

  • 10,716 total

  • 8,076 unvaccinated

  • 761 received first dose less than 14 days ago

  • 748 partially vaccinated

  • 1,131 fully vaccinated

• Deaths as of January 15th, 2022:

  • 12,069 total

  • 8,479 unvaccinated

  • 770 received first dose less than 14 days ago

  • 788 partially vaccinated

  • 2,032 fully vaccinated