NS COVID-19 Cases by Vaccination Status
This article was originally written on December 28th, 2021. The predictions within it have held up well, which will be covered in a future post. The information in this article is still useful, but be sure to check out my new post as well.
For the past few months, the Nova Scotia government has been blaming the spread of COVID-19 on people who have chosen not to be vaccinated against the disease. Politicians and public health experts continuously thank vaccinated individuals for stepping up and doing the right thing, while telling us this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
There are numerous restrictions on unvaccinated individuals based on the perception that they are much more likely to contract and transmit COVID-19 than vaccinated individuals. Unvaccinated people are not allowed to eat at restaurants, go to gyms, visit loved ones in hospitals, attend weddings or funerals, or participate in many other parts of society.
The provincial government is even stopping thousands of unvaccinated Nova Scotians from earning an income. Workers who interact with the public (nurses, teachers, etc.) as well as employees who work alone (snowplow operators, IT workers, etc.), are being told that their presence in the workplace would make it unsafe.
These restrictions are largely based on the rates of COVID-19 infection in Nova Scotia. The Nova Scotia COVID-19 dashboard continues to mislead people regarding cases by vaccination status. The dashboard states that as of December 17th, 2021, 83% of cases have been in unvaccinated people and only 11% have been in fully vaccinated people.
This is a blatant case of "lying with statistics". These percentages include cases all the way back to March 15th, 2021, even though most Nova Scotians weren't fully vaccinated until August. This means thousands of cases are counted as "unvaccinated" from a time when almost nobody was vaccinated.
For a better comparison, we can look at cases over the past few weeks. The last three weeks where data was released by vaccination status covers November 26th to December 16th, 2021. There were 919 cases total, with 49% of cases in unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people and 51% in fully vaccinated people.
The above numbers don't tell the whole story, however. Children under 12 were not eligible to be fully vaccinated at the time, which means that all COVID-19 cases under the age of 12 were either "partially vaccinated" or "unvaccinated". When considering cases by vaccination status, looking at cases in people aged 12 and above ensures we are making the least biased comparison based on the information available.
By removing the 218 cases aged 0 to 11 from that time period, we are left with the following case data for people aged 12 and above:
219 (31%) cases unvaccinated or partially vaccinated
482 (69%) cases fully vaccinated
Looking at cases even more recently, the last week of data available is between December 10th and December 16th, 2021. There were 528 new cases of COVID-19 announced by the Nova Scotia Department of Health and Wellness during that time. Of those cases, 68% were in fully vaccinated people and 32% were in unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people.
Remember, however, that children under 12 were not eligible to be fully vaccinated. By removing the 73 cases in children under 12, we are left with case data for people aged 12 and above:
94 (21%) partially vaccinated or unvaccinated
361 (79%) fully vaccinated
COVID-19 is not a pandemic of the unvaccinated. During the most recent outbreak in Nova Scotia, four out of five cases have been in fully vaccinated people. It is likely that this trend will continue, although it may be hidden by more "lying with statistics". In the coming weeks, the likely source of misleading statistics is Nova Scotia's new testing strategy, which focuses more on unvaccinated individuals.
Nova Scotia has also paused its release of case data by vaccinated status. By the time the province starts releasing this data again, it will be hard to know how accurately it represents the true distribution of cases.
The most accurate distribution can be obtained by looking at cases between December 10th, when daily cases passed 100, and December 26th, 2021, the last day of "unbiased" testing. There is a current FOIPOP request in progress to access case data by vaccination status and age for December 17th to 26th, to be combined with the December 10th to 16th data. Once that FOIPOP request is fulfilled, this article will be updated to reflect those numbers.
Sources
Note: These numbers were obtained by looking at Nova Scotia government data sources from two different dates and calculating the difference.
Cases by vaccination status:
Mar 15th to Nov 25th: https://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20211126012
Mar 15th to Dec 9th: https://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20211210011
Mar 15th to Dec 16th: https://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20211217004
Cases by age:
Data recorded from: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/204d6ed723244dfbb763ca3f913c5cad
All cases until Nov 25th: 1259 cases 0-11 years old, 8141 cases total
All cases until Dec 9th: 1404 cases 0-11 years old, 8532 cases total
All cases until Dec 16th: 1477 cases 0-11 years old, 9060 cases total